ForwardKeys shared damaging travel data with the White House prior to the second travel ban

| March 6, 2017
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ForwardKeys, which monitors future travel patterns by analysing 16 million flight reservation transactions each day shared its latest analysis of the negative impacts of the travel ban on the US travel industry with the White House prior to the new ban coming in to force.

The information was sent by email to Lindsay Walters, Deputy Press Secretary, on Friday 3rd March at 11.03 am EST by Tarsh Consulting, ForwardKeys’ PR adviser.

Olivier Jager, CEO, ForwardKeys, said: “The information provided to the White House makes it clear that the travel ban has damaged the US travel industry. There has been a 39% meltdown in travel to the Middle East and when the ban was first announced, there was a 6.5% slump in bookings to the USA. The slump was reversed when the courts struck down the ban but Donald Trump’s promise of a new ban has triggered a second 4% slump.”

He continued: “When Donald Trump issued the first travel ban, he did not have access to ForwardKeys’ data; however, we sent our analysis to Lindsay Walters personally on Friday, so it would be reasonable to assume Donald Trump’s administration was aware of our findings before implementing the new ban.”

The detail of the information sent is as follows:

Middle East meltdown:

US travel to Islamic countries collapses in wake of Trump ban

US bookings for travel to the Middle East collapsed in the wake of President Trump’s travel ban, according to ForwardKeys, which monitors future travel patterns by analysing 16 million flight reservation transactions each day.

Olivier Jager, CEO, ForwardKeys, said: “It is interesting to note that the travel ban has not only impacted travel from the seven affected countries to the USA, as one would expect; it has also affected travel in the opposite direction too.  At this point, we suspect that United States citizens may be avoiding travel to Islamic countries, fearing that they will not be welcome or that Muslims based in the United States may be avoiding travel fearing re-entry problems or both. Nevertheless, the effect, a 27% collapse in bookings to the Middle East, is substantial.”

ForwardKeys also found that the travel ban on people from the seven Muslim-majority countries had a much wider than expected impact, as total international travel to the USA fell by 6.5% in the wake of the executive order. The intervention by the courts a week later to strike down the ban triggered a recovery; only for bookings to the USA to slump again when President Trump promised a new ban. Future bookings are effectively flat.

Outbound travel bookings before and after the ban

The impact of the ban on outbound travel is demonstrated by the fact that accumulated USA bookings to the Middle East three weeks before the ban were up by a very healthy 12% on last year. However, in the four weeks following the ban they were down 27%, a 39% meltdown!

 

The same pattern was observed in bookings to South Asia, which, prior to the travel ban were 12% up and in the period afterwards fell to 24% down, a 36% reversal. (ForwardKeys’ geographic definition, following UNWTO, puts Iraq, Yemen and Syria in the Middle East and Iran in South Asia). As a benchmark, total outbound bookings from the USA made during the peak January booking season, prior to the imposition of the travel ban, were unusually healthy, 17% up on last year. The surge was likely driven by pent-up demand for travel to Europe, which was negatively affected in 2016 by a series of terrorist incidents.  In the four weeks after the imposition of the ban, the rise in total outbound bookings had fallen back to 4.4%.

Bookings for outbound travel during the coming three months

Looking ahead at bookings for future travel during the upcoming three months, March-May, there has also been a significant stall in bookings from the USA to the Middle East and South Asia. On January 27th forward bookings for travel to the Middle East were 23% ahead of the same point last year but by February 28th, they had fallen to 2.4% behind, a 25.4% slow-down.  Bookings for travel to South Asia during the March-May period were 8.8% ahead prior to the imposition of the ban; by February 28th, they were 6.6% behind, a 15.4% slow-down. As a benchmark, overall USA outbound travel for the next three months is, as of February 28th, a very healthy 11% ahead but prior to the ban it had been an even healthier 20% ahead, a 9% slow-down.

Whether the overall slow-down in forward bookings has been caused by the travel ban is debateable – it could simply be the consequence of an unusually strong peak booking season in January. However, the collapse in bookings to the Middle East is very difficult to explain without reference to the travel ban.

 

Inbound travel to the USA

Looking more closely at total international travel to the US, ForwardKeys data shows that the imposition of the travel ban on January 27th caused a 6.5% slump in bookings to the USA in the following eight days.  However, when the ban was struck down by the courts on February 4th, there was a recovery and in the 12 days after that, bookings rose to 2.2% over the same period last year. But, as soon as plans for a new ban were announced on February 17th, bookings again fell and in the 9 days since, they have been 4% down on the equivalent period last year. The Middle East and Africa were particularly hit by a reluctance to travel to the USA, as was Europe.

 

Bookings for inbound travel during the coming three months

Looking ahead, forward bookings for total international arrivals in the USA during the next three months, are currently slightly, 0.4%, behind where they were at the same time last year. Inbound travel from Europe, the Middle East and Africa is significantly behind whereas travel from Asia Pacific and the Americas is ahead. As a benchmark, on January 27th, the day before the imposition of the travel ban, three-month forward bookings were 3.4% ahead.

 

Olivier Jager, concluded: “Donald Trump’s on-off travel ban has created a rollercoaster ride for the travel industry. Some passengers do not know where they stand as they await President Trump’s promised new order. It’s not at all clear when that will come. In the meantime, uncertainty reigns and the presidential rhetoric appears to be deterring visitors to the USA.”

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