A remarkable recovery …
After a distressing experience in 2009, world tourism staged a remarkable recovery in 2010. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), in its advance release of the World Tourism Barometer in January, estimated that international tourist arrivals worldwide rose by 6.7% to 935 million, 22 million more than at the top of the cycle in 2008. UNWTO’s updated Barometer, which is being launched at ITB Berlin this week, is expected to confirm these provisional estimates.
Of course, given a longer-term growth of around 4.25% a year, we might have expected worldwide arrivals to have exceeded 990 million last year. Or again, since no one should expect booms to go on un-interruptedly, let alone indefinitely, perhaps not. Nevertheless, given the severity of the world economic crisis in 2008-09, the fact that international arrivals have already surpassed their previous peak is a reaffirmation of the status of travel and tourism as one of the world’s growth industries.
… led by emerging markets
Famously, the emerging and developing economies have come out of the economic downturn earlier and more vigorously than the developed world. This is also reflected in tourism trends. However, arrivals in the advanced economies also set a record in 2010. According to the UNWTO’s provisional estimates, arrivals in emerging and developing economies were up more than 8% on their 2009 numbers, while those in the advanced economies rose 5%. There were new records in all the world’s regions except Europe, with most individual destinations contributing increases. The exceptions were mostly in Europe and Central America – and among the smaller destinations in the Caribbean and Pacific Ocean. There are always some in difficulties, just as there are always some enjoying large increases in even the worst of world economic climates.
The recovery has been most hesitant in Europe, where arrivals rose by half the world average. They rose roughly as fast as the world average in North America, Oceania and Africa, and twice as fast in Asia, South America and the Middle East.^
… and confirmed by air traffic figures
Preliminary figures released by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) show that the airlines of its member states carried about 2.5 billion passengers in 2010, 6% more than in 2009; revenue-passenger kilometres (RPK) increased by 8%. International traffic was up 9% and domestic traffic 7%. (See additional information on air transport trends below.)
A year packed full of mega-events
One thing that certainly brightened up 2010 was that there were plenty of events to attract potential visitors. From the Winter Olympics in Vancouver to the FIFA Football World Cup in June and the Shanghai World Expo from May through October, everyone who wanted to travel was faced with a wide choice of destination and event options.
In Europe, Estonia held the European Figure Skating Championships in January 2010, Oberammergau in Germany staged its decennial Passion Play from May through October, and Istanbul shared the honour of being 2010’s European Capital of Culture with Essen (Germany, on behalf of the Ruhr Valley) and Pécs (Hungary).
Business travel bounced back strongly
Although details are not yet available, among the most important trends in 2010 was the much improved performance of the business travel market – the impact of which was felt most strongly by airlines following a sharp fall in premium seat sales the previous year. Demand for segments like meetings and incentives recorded a healthy recovery in many countries, although there are suggestions that some companies continue to be reluctant to be seen spending on such items in a recession and at a time when so many people have lost their jobs. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) has just commissioned a study on Business Travel from Oxford Economics, the results of which are due to be released at the Global Travel & Tourism Forum in May. These are expected to show that business travel not only impacts positively on corporations’ bottom lines, but also generates increased economic activity and trade, boosting the economic performance of local communities and nations overall.
